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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 76

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(7:53) 16-J.Bailey punts 52 yards to BUF 24, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.13 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 34, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP