Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 14

(12:17) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to BUF 26, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-30-A.Ingold.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 74, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model