Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 72

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 21

(6:22) 16-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to BUF 26, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 72, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model