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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 37

Buffalo Bills 21 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 76-D.Edwards reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle to MIA 37 for no gain (51-D.Long; 91-E.Ogbah).

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +1.22 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model