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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 46

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 16-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to BUF 11, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.59 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 13, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model