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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 35

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Elliott [92-Z.Sieler] at MIA -7. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.58 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 45, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model