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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 57

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 1-J.Fields up the middle to CHI 44 for 1 yard (91-P.Smith, 25-K.Nixon).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.95 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model