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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 51

Chicago Bears 6 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 16-T.Gill punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.05 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.56 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model