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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 50

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 16-T.Gill punts 42 yards to GB 8, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.42 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model