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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 56

Tennessee Titans 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(:29) (Punt formation) 13-T.Zentner FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 31, and recovers at TEN 31. 13-T.Zentner to TEN 38 for 7 yards (85-B.Strange).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.41 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 56, worth -2.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.52 EP