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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 33

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Tennessee Titans 28

What Actually Happened

(7:14) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-Z.Jones to TEN 29 for 4 yards (24-E.Molden).

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.30 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model