Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 68

Tennessee Titans 28 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

(5:20) 13-T.Zentner punts 45 yards to JAX 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 37 for 14 yards (41-O.Reese).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.11 EP
60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 68, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model