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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 28 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 13-T.Zentner punts 50 yards to JAX 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-P.Washington to JAX 25 for 5 yards (39-M.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.56 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 70, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 28, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model