4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Tennessee Titans 28

What Actually Happened

(1:50) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 17-E.Engram.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 67, worth -1.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 25, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model