Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Tennessee Titans 7

(4:02) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to TEN 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.73 EP
59% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 69, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model