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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 71

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 3-J.Fox punts 61 yards to MIN 10, Center-43-J.McQuaide, downed by DET-30-K.Dorsey.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 71, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 29, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model