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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 57

Detroit Lions 13 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 3-J.Fox punts 55 yards to MIN 2, Center-43-J.McQuaide, downed by DET-30-K.Dorsey.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.62 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 57, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP