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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 65

Detroit Lions 13 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(1:25) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to MIN 20, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 4-B.Powell to MIN 33 for 13 yards (44-M.Rodriguez). PENALTY on MIN-33-B.Asamoah, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 33.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.94 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 23, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model