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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 49

Detroit Lions 20 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.99 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP