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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 38

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(:26) 12-N.Mullens pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.53 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 38, worth -2.02 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 47, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model