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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 21

Detroit Lions 27 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 17-M.Badgley 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.47 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 31, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model