Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 77

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 7

(6:17) 14-R.Wright punts 57 yards to DET 20, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 36 for 16 yards (34-N.Muse; 40-I.Pace).

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 77, worth -4.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model