Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 73

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 0

(14:18) 17-B.Baringer punts 63 yards to NYJ 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 23 for 13 yards (22-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 73, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model