Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 71

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 6

(4:48) 17-B.Baringer punts 37 yards to NYJ 34, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYJ 36.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model