4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 31

New York Jets 6 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(:26) 9-G.Zuerlein 49 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.58 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model