4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 54

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(:04) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete deep left.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.50 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 54, worth -0.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model