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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 64

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to NYJ 8, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 18 for 10 yards (41-B.Schooler).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.27 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 22, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model