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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 55

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(12:23) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short right to 86-P.Brown (21-A.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.58 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 55, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model