Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 84

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(6:11) 49-J.Cardona to NE 3 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by NE-17-B.Baringer at NE 2. 17-B.Baringer punts 41 yards to NYJ 43. 82-X.Gipson to NE 46 for 11 yards (86-P.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -3.01 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.36 EP
74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 84, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model