Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
New York Jets
4th & 1 at the 37
New York Jets 9 – New England Patriots 3
What Actually Happened
(3:43) (Shotgun) 20-Bre.Hall right tackle to NE 40 for -3 yards (33-A.Jennings).
The Three Options
GO
+1.31 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.86 EP
- 38% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 37, worth -1.28 EP
KICK
+0.42 EP
- 58% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
- 42% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT
-0.45 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
