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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 55

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe scrambles right end ran ob at NE 49 for 4 yards (99-W.McDonald).

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +0.80 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 55, worth -0.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model