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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 62

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 5-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to NE 3, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.29 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model