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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 95

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(7:30) 17-B.Baringer punts 37 yards to NE 42, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson pushed ob at NE 38 for 4 yards (45-C.Board).

The Three Options

GO -3.42 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.51 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 95, worth -5.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -2.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 53, worth -2.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model