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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 3

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 9-G.Zuerlein 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.65 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 3, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP