Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 74

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 3

(:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 60 yards to NYJ 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 74, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model