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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 73

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 5-J.Camarda punts 60 yards to CAR 13, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 21 for 8 yards (19-D.Moore; 32-J.Hayes).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.44 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP