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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 71

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 10-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to TB 29, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.50 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP