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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 74

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 5-J.Camarda punts 74 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.76 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model