Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 79

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

(1:21) 10-J.Hekker punts 35 yards to TB 44, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-21-J.Chinn.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.16 EP
65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model