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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 51

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(9:29) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to TB 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-29-D.Jamison.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.10 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.82 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model