4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 38

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(2:23) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen to TB 30 for 8 yards (29-C.Izien). TB-94-C.Kancey was injured during the play. TB-54-L.David was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.80 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model