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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 34

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(:04) 16-M.Wright 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.58 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model