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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 54

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9

What Actually Happened

(8:20) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle to CAR 48 for 2 yards (24-C.Davis; 54-L.David).

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.37 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model