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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 10

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.99 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 10, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model