4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 14

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(:22) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.41 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 14, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth -0.26 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model