4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 73

Miami Dolphins 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 16-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to KC 27, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 17-R.James pushed ob at KC 28 for 1 yard (30-A.Ingold).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.37 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 31, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP