Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 26 – Miami Dolphins 7

(5:28) 5-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to MIA 29, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.18 EP
54% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 73, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model