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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 67

Miami Dolphins 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 26

What Actually Happened

(4:27) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 11-C.Wilson ran ob at MIA 42 for 9 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.42 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 67, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 25, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.45 EP