Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 58

Miami Dolphins 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 26

(4:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 17-J.Waddle ran ob at KC 44 for 14 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

What Happened

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.05 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 58, worth -2.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.58 EP