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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Miami Dolphins
4th & 10 at the 44
Miami Dolphins 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 26
What Actually Happened
(3:49) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete deep left to 10-T.Hill.
The Three Options
GO
-0.02 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.19 EP
- 68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -1.56 EP
KICK
-0.56 EP
- 34% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
- 66% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT
-0.39 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
